EV vs Diesel: Total Cost of Ownership Compared (Singapore 2026)
Per-kilometre running cost clearly favours electric — roughly a fifth of diesel’s fuel cost at current prices — but the full total cost of ownership picture is closer once you account for COE (identical for both under Category C), grant timing, and diesel’s more mature resale market. The crossover point depends heavily on your annual mileage, your route profile, and how long you hold the vehicle.
Key Takeaways
- Energy cost per km strongly favours EVs — at current diesel and electricity prices, an illustrative light van comparison shows electricity running at roughly a fifth of diesel’s per-km fuel cost.
- COE cost is identical for both — EVs and diesel goods vehicles bid in the same Category C pool, so COE isn’t a differentiator on its own, though EEAI knocks up to $7,500 off an EV’s ARF component.
- Higher annual mileage favours EVs faster — the per-km energy savings compound with distance, so a high-utilisation delivery van reaches payback faster than a low-mileage vehicle.
- Diesel’s resale market is still deeper and more predictable — EV resale values in Singapore’s commercial market are less established, which is a real (if hard to quantify precisely) cost consideration, not just a psychological one.
- A full 10-year worked example still favours EVs at typical delivery-van mileage — but the margin narrows sharply at low annual mileage, and route profile (short urban stop-start versus long-haul) shifts the numbers further in each direction. This is an estimate; see the worked example below for the reasoning.
- This comparison is illustrative, not vehicle-specific — plug in your actual vehicle’s tested consumption figures and your actual annual mileage before making a purchase decision; generic guides (including this one) are a starting framework, not a substitute for your own numbers.
The Per-Kilometre Energy Cost, Worked Through
As of September 2026, diesel was priced around $3.50/litre, and SP Group’s regulated electricity tariff was 34.78 cents/kWh (with GST). These prices were correct at that date but move regularly, so check current prices before relying on them. Using illustrative, typical consumption figures for a light commercial van:
| Diesel Van (~11 L/100km) | Electric Van (~22 kWh/100km) | |
|---|---|---|
| Cost per 100km | ~$38.50 | ~$7.65 |
| Cost per km | ~$0.385 | ~$0.077 |
| Annual cost at 30,000km/year | ~$11,550 | ~$2,295 |
That’s roughly $9,000/year in fuel/energy savings per vehicle at moderate annual mileage — a real number, but one that assumes your actual vehicle’s consumption is in this range and that you’re charging primarily off the standard residential-equivalent tariff rather than a more expensive public fast-charging rate. Actual figures depend heavily on your specific vehicle model, load, route profile, and charging pattern.
Don’t use this article’s consumption figures for your own budgeting — pull the manufacturer’s tested consumption figure for your exact model and your fleet’s actual annual mileage, then redo this calculation with your own numbers. The framework matters more than our illustrative figures.
A Full 10-Year Worked Example
Per-km fuel cost is only one line in a total cost of ownership sum. Here’s a fuller worked example for the same illustrative van, held the full 10-year COE term at 30,000km/year. Some rows are sourced facts; others are our own reasoned estimates, flagged as such — don’t copy either straight into a purchase decision.
| Cost Component (10-year hold, 30,000km/year) | Diesel Van | Electric Van |
|---|---|---|
| On-the-road price incl. COE (est. range) | ~$95,000–$115,000 | ~$120,000–$145,000 before EEAI; ~$112,500–$137,500 after |
| Category C COE, Sept 2026 1st bidding (sourced) | ~$93,101 | ~$93,101 (same pool) |
| Financing, 70% loan / 5 yrs @ est. 3.5–5% p.a. | ~$3,000–$4,500 interest | ~$3,500–$5,500 interest |
| Energy/fuel over 10 yrs (flat-price, sourced Sept 2026 prices) | ~$115,500 | ~$22,950 |
| Insurance over 10 yrs (est. range) | ~$25,000–$35,000 | ~$30,000–$45,000 |
| Maintenance over 10 yrs (est. range) | ~$18,000–$24,000 | ~$10,000–$15,000 |
| Residual value at year 10, % of price (est.) | ~15–20% | ~10–15%, wider uncertainty |
| Estimated total 10-year cost of ownership | ~$250,000–$265,000 | ~$180,000–$195,000 |
| Estimated cost per km, 300,000km lifetime | ~$0.83–$0.88 | ~$0.60–$0.65 |
On these mid-range figures, the electric van comes out roughly $60,000–$70,000 cheaper over the decade, almost entirely on the fuel-cost line — enough to absorb its higher purchase price, insurance, and softer resale value. That margin isn’t fixed, though. Drop annual mileage to 10,000km/year and the ten-year energy-cost gap shrinks from roughly $92,500 to roughly $30,850, while the mileage-independent lines barely move — narrowing the total-cost gap to a low four-figure sum across the decade. This is an estimate, for illustration only. At that point, a pricier-than-assumed EV insurance quote or a softer resale value is enough to tip a specific vehicle’s numbers the other way. That’s the real substance behind this guide’s “low mileage favours diesel” takeaway — how thin the margin gets, not a guaranteed reversal.
Selling at year 5 rather than year 10? Don’t assume half the 10-year numbers apply proportionally — financing interest is front-loaded, and a mid-life EV resale carries more pricing uncertainty than diesel’s, for lack of transaction history to price against. [Reasoned inference, not a sourced figure]
Insurers confirm the direction without giving Singapore-specific figures: EV cover generally costs more than diesel, largely down to battery replacement cost, a thin specialist repair network, and higher write-off risk. The dollar figures above are an illustrative range built on that direction, not a quote — get one for your specific model.
Where COE and Grants Actually Move the Needle
Both electric and diesel goods vehicles register under the same Category C COE pool — an EV doesn’t get a cheaper or separate COE for being electric. Category C’s first September 2026 bidding round closed at $93,101 (renewal PQP: $92,907) — a useful reference point, but it moves every round, so check the current figure before costing a purchase. What does change the comparison:
- EEAI knocks 45% off the ARF component, capped at $7,500, for EVs registered before its 31 December 2026 deadline — a real but capped saving, not a proportional discount on the whole vehicle.
- CVES can add an incentive (up to $15,000) for a low-emissions light vehicle, or a surcharge (up to $20,000) for a high-emissions one — this cuts both ways and isn’t EV-exclusive, though EVs typically land favourably.
- HVZES, for heavier zero-tailpipe vehicles, adds a further incentive layer — see our EV Grants guide for the current figures and the flagged uncertainty around a reported September 2026 rate change.
None of these grants change the COE bid itself — they adjust ARF and, for HVZES, add a direct incentive payment. Model your COE cost as identical between the two options, then layer the grants in separately.
Maintenance and Resale: The Harder-to-Quantify Side
Electric drivetrains have structurally fewer wear items — no engine oil, less brake wear from regenerative braking — which should mean lower scheduled maintenance cost over the vehicle’s life. That’s directionally true, but Singapore’s EV-specific commercial workshop capacity is still maturing, which can mean fewer competing quotes and less price pressure on specialist EV servicing compared to the well-established diesel commercial vehicle servicing market.
Resale is the bigger unknown. Diesel commercial vehicles have decades of resale data and an established regional secondary market. Commercial EV resale values in Singapore don’t have that depth of history yet — which doesn’t necessarily mean lower resale value, but it does mean more uncertainty in your total cost of ownership model on the disposal side, in a way that a diesel vehicle simply doesn’t carry.
Does Your Route Profile Change the Answer?
The worked example above assumes one generic driving pattern. Route profile pushes the real comparison in opposite directions depending on the duty cycle.
Short urban stop-start routes — parcel rounds, last-mile delivery, multi-stop service calls — tend to widen the EV’s advantage. A diesel engine is least efficient idling and accelerating from a stop; an EV recovers a share of that braking energy through regenerative braking instead of dumping it as heat. [Generally accepted vehicle-engineering reasoning, not a Singapore-specific measured figure] Treat this guide’s per-km diesel figure as a ceiling for dense urban rounds — your real cost is plausibly higher there.
Long-haul or expressway-heavy routes cut the other way. Diesel runs closer to its efficiency sweet spot at steady highway speed, while EV energy consumption climbs with speed as aerodynamic drag increases — narrowing the gap. Fast chargers suited to fleet use are also concentrated in town centres and commercial premises rather than spread evenly along expressway corridors, so long-haul routes need more deliberate charging-stop planning. Our guide to electric commercial vehicles in Singapore covers the current charging network in more detail.
If your fleet runs a mix of duty cycles, segment the electrification decision by route profile rather than applying one TCO verdict fleet-wide — a dense urban round and a cross-island long-haul route are close to two different vehicles in cost-of-ownership terms.
Charging Downtime and Fleet Scheduling
A cost-per-km table doesn’t capture one of the more operationally disruptive differences: how a vehicle gets refuelled, and what that does to your schedule. LTA’s own vehicle electrification roadmap states that overnight slow (AC) charging is expected to remain the predominant strategy for most vehicles, with higher-powered DC fast chargers deployed specifically for high-mileage users like taxis and commercial fleets.
- Overnight AC depot charging suits a single-shift operation returning to base nightly — the vehicle charges during hours it wasn’t earning revenue anyway. It doesn’t suit multi-shift or round-the-clock operations without a midday top-up plan.
- DC fast charging cuts charging time substantially, but typically costs more per kWh than the regulated tariff used above, and — unlike a five-minute diesel refuel — still takes the vehicle off the road for a real chunk of a shift, i.e. scheduled non-revenue time diesel doesn’t incur.
- Depot electrical capacity is a line item a per-km comparison misses entirely: charging several vehicles overnight can mean an electrical supply upgrade and landlord coordination with its own lead time — none of it in a fuel-cost spreadsheet, all of it affecting when a fleet can actually convert.
The EV decision for a multi-shift or tightly-scheduled fleet needs an operational plan alongside the financial one. Our fleet cost tools are a starting point for running your own vehicle’s consumption and mileage through this framework.
When the Numbers Favour Diesel
- Low annual mileage, where the per-km energy savings don’t accumulate enough to offset any purchase price premium within your holding period — see the worked example above for how thin that margin can get.
- Routes or duty cycles that don’t suit depot charging — multi-shift operations without adequate charging infrastructure may face real operational costs (downtime, route restructuring) that don’t show up in a simple fuel-cost comparison.
- Resale-sensitive holding periods — if you plan to sell before the vehicle’s end of life, diesel’s more predictable resale market reduces uncertainty in your realised total cost.
FAQ
Is an electric commercial vehicle always cheaper to run than diesel in Singapore?
Per-kilometre energy cost, yes, by a wide margin at current prices — but total cost of ownership also depends on purchase price, grants, financing, insurance, maintenance, and resale value, which don’t all move the same direction.
Does an EV get a cheaper COE than a diesel goods vehicle?
No — both register under the same Category C COE pool, which cleared at $93,101 in the first September 2026 bidding round. The savings come from ARF discounts (EEAI) and separate incentive schemes (CVES, HVZES), not a different COE price.
How much can I save per year switching to an electric van?
Illustratively, using typical light van consumption figures, roughly $9,000/year in fuel/energy cost at 30,000km annual mileage — but this depends entirely on your specific vehicle and usage pattern. Recalculate with your own numbers.
Is commercial EV resale value lower than diesel in Singapore?
It’s less established rather than confirmed lower — the secondary market for commercial EVs is younger and thinner than diesel’s, which adds uncertainty rather than a known discount.
Does higher mileage make EVs more cost-effective?
Yes — the per-km energy cost advantage compounds with distance, so high-utilisation fleets reach payback on any purchase price premium faster than low-mileage ones.
Does route profile affect whether an EV or diesel wins on cost?
Yes, directionally. Stop-start urban routes widen an EV’s per-km advantage through regenerative braking and poor diesel idling efficiency; long-haul, expressway-heavy routes narrow it, since EV consumption rises with speed while diesel stays closer to peak efficiency.
How much operational downtime does EV charging add compared to diesel refuelling?
For a single-shift fleet returning to depot overnight, effectively none — charging happens on AC power during hours it wasn’t earning revenue anyway. Multi-shift operations needing a midday top-up rely on DC fast charging, which is quicker than AC but still slower and pricier per kWh than a diesel refuel — schedule it deliberately rather than assume it away.
What electricity rate should I use to estimate charging costs?
The regulated tariff (around 34.78 cents/kWh with GST as of Q3 2026) is a reasonable starting proxy for depot charging, but your actual commercial electricity contract rate may differ — check your own tariff before finalising a comparison.
Author: Keith Kwai, editor and publisher of SGFleetGuide, with 25 years experience in B2B and B2C companies. More about the author.
Last updated: 11 September 2026
Sources: Daily Fuels — Singapore Fuel Prices | SP Group — Electricity Tariff Information | LTA/NEA — Extension of VES and EEAI | LTA — COE Quota, August–October 2026 | COE Bidding Results, Category C, September 2026 | LTA — Our EV Roadmap (charging strategy) | Liberty Insurance — EV Insurance in Singapore
